About That River in Egypt

Contrary to popular belief, Struthio camelus -- your garden-variety ostrich -- does not bury its head in sand to avoid danger. It does what any living thing does when its survival is threatened. It gets the hell out of Dodge.

So far the only person I've seen take this incredibly reasonable approach to the Full Tilt situation is Phil Ivey. The rest of the world seems to be sitting around thinking that things will get better with time. Or at least, that they're not going to get any worse.

Reality check:

1. This is not an accounting issue. It's not merely a matter of convincing the DOJ that the seized money is really non-segregated player funds. That's never going to happen. The DOJ response to that line is, "Tough titties kid. Looks like non-segregated operational funds to us."

2. This is not a payment processing issue. If Tilt had the money, they'd be able to set up the banking relationships necessary to pay out U.S. players. Fuck, when I was in the corporate world we used a barely competent 22-year-old paralegal who couldn't speak English and preferred to spend her working day playing Mafia Wars to set up the dozens of corporate banking relationships we needed. And you know what? It got done! We didn't even need an agreement with the DOJ specifically authorizing it.

3. This is not a public relations issue.

Well, that's not entirely true. It *is* a PR issue, as so eloquently stated by Jesse May's "You Sanctimonious Little". When Michelle Clayborne is your lead publicist everything is a PR issue. But that's not the cause of the problem. It's a symptom of the true issue: mis-management.

4. This is not a Phil Ivey issue. Sure, Ivey feigning some sort of nobility about skipping the WSOP is all smoke and mirrors. But lets apply Occam's Razor to the situation. Tilt didn't get anything accomplished for six weeks, and basically didn't utter a peep other than to feed the 2+2 forum account "FTPDoug" to the ravenous masses. Are we now supposed to believe that a deal was imminent and was de-railed by Ivey? Really? The same Ivey that had a huge vested interest in Tilt's continued survival?

Look, the facts have been staring us all in the face since at least April 20, the day it became startlingly clear that FTP might not, in fact, have been segregating player accounts. Not to go patting myself on the back, but I tweeted that day, "Not a fan of the latest FTP news re frozen accts and player funds. Seems like a short leap from there to the word 'commingling'."

I may have more access than most when it comes to FTP operations, but all I did that day was read a few pressers and make some logical intuitive leaps. Prognosis: negative. I looked longingly at my FTP account balance one more time ($1,142.60) and then consigned it to the abyss.

Last week Ivey painted the proverbial writing on the wall in fluorescent letters six feet high. Tilt is seriously fucked. What other conclusion can we possibly draw from the fact that the greatest poker player in the world felt it was time and necessary to get out -- even if it was for his own purely business-related reasons?

And then Tilt, in all their blessed, bumbling incompetence, responded by trying to scapegoat Ivey.

Scapegoat Ivey! Scapegoat the most recognizable poker player in the world and the face of their site for eight years. You'd think Ray Bitar would have sent an underling to stand outside Ivey's trailer, the one Ivey usually keeps parked in the back of the Rio Convention Center at this time of year, to hold a boom box over his head playing "In Your Eyes".

Ivey had no use for Tilt outside of the money it provided him. You're kidding yourself if you think he did. Nobody but Howard could get Ivey to do Tilt promotional work. With such disdain for the promotional side of the business, Ivey certainly couldn't be bothered to stick his nose into the operational side. Yet Tilt was *blessed* to have Ivey on the team. He's the one guy who can transcend poker and make a blip on ESPN's SportsCenter. Now somehow this is suddenly all Ivey's fault?

Ivey acted like the true ostrich in all of this. He used his powerful legs and remarkable speed to get the fuck out while the getting out was good.

5. This IS a survival issue. PokerStars had the proper safeguards in place to evolve and adapt to changed conditions. In my first Black Friday post, I wrote, "I envisioned a minion of Isai Scheinberg walking around the Stars corporate headquarters with the nuclear football handcuffed to his wrist. Another would break the emergency glass and start distributing the contingency plan -- prepared for this very eventuality -- to all employees." This week I learned that my tongue-in-cheek description wasn't far from the truth.

Of course! That's what any sane business would do.

On the other hand, a culture of mis-management has permeated Tilt for years. That kind of administration doesn't have the nuclear football handcuffed to their wrists in case those pesky Soviets launch a pre-emptive strike. That kind of administration venerates the ostrich effect and pretends that the Soviets don't exist. And judging from Tilt's (lack of) response the last six weeks, if they did have the football handcuffed to their wrists, Ray Bitar forgot to put the launch codes inside of it.

That's all well and good as long as the Soviets never strike. But when they do, it's game over man.

I know that, for a lot of people, people with significantly more money tied up online than my paltry $1,142, the idea that Tilt is never coming back is a bitter pill to swallow. But if you ignore the elephant in the room, don't be surprised when he tramples you.