Math is Retarded

Last night, for a chance of pace, I played both of the Daily Doubles on Full Tilt. I forgot that I was playing $10 tournaments, so in one I went out on a bone-headed play that failed to take that detail into account. The other one, I ran into a buzzsaw who couldn't lay down an ace. Hmm, such is life.

Before registering to play I nosed around the "Doubles" pages on Full Tilt. The basic premise is that every day there are three pairs of "Double" tournaments: the Early Double ($5+1, gets roughly 1,500 entrants); the Daily Double ($10+2, gets roughly 1,200 entrants); and the Big Double ($60+15, gets about 200 entrants). If the juice seems high it's because each pair has a jackpot attached to it. The extra juice is used to fund the jackpot.

Jackpot money for each jackpot is distributed as follows:

* Cash in both tournaments: all "double cashers" split 3% of the jackpot;
* Best combined finish: the player with the best combined finish receives 2%;
* Final table in both tournaments: all "double final tablers" split 20% of the jackpot; and
* Double win: anyone who wins both tournaments in the same night receives 75% of the jackpot.

The Daily Double promotion started approximately three years ago; the Early Double and the Big Double were added later. Also added later was the "Triple Double", a promotion in which anyone who manages to win all six tournaments in the same calendar month will receive a bonus of $1 million.

The jackpots are currently $32,000, $41,000 and $24,000 respectively.

At first glance the promotion seems appealing. There are a couple of smaller targets to aim for (double cash, best finish) and the holy grails of a double final table and double win to dream about. By and large, however, that's what a double win is -- a dream.

Winning a tournament with a field of 1,500 or 1,200 entrants requires lots of breaks to fall the right way. Even if you have an edge over the field you might be only 1 in 400 to win. Now multiply that number by itself because you don't have to win just one tournament -- you have to win two. Suddenly what seemed somewhat attainable looks like a longshot at 1 in 16,000. With only 365 trials a year (one each day), it's no surprise that there has never been a Double Winner in the Early Double or the Big Double. You could easily go 40 years without seeing such a feat.

Double final tables are rare enough, happening usually not more than once or twice a month. And even then, you still need lots to line up right to have a shot.

Obviously the odds are better in the Big Double, as it gets only 200 runners a night. And in fact there has been at least one Double Winner in the history of the Big Double. But it's still a long-shot occurrence.

Then there's the Triple Double. That promotion requires a player to win each of the six "Double" tournaments in a single calendar month. Again even if you're 1 in 400 to win any of the Early or Daily Doubles, you still have only a roughly 7.3% chance of winning any individual tournament in a month. Except you have to win ALL of them, so raise that 7.3% to the fourth power. You come up with a very, very small number that doesn't even take into account trying to win the Big Doubles also.

Going for a double win in any of the "Doubles" tournaments is hard enough. Chasing after the Triple Double is like trying to catch a unicorn. But still, the Doubles tournaments have a strong following, most likely because the smaller jackpot targets provide enough of an overlay that people don't mind paying the extra juice.

It's a fun way to kill some time (and was one of Full Tilt's first marketing efforts aimed at getting people to play multiple tables at once). Just don't count on taking down the bulk of the jackpot.